Since the fourth quarter of last year, upstream pulp prices have risen strongly, but January to February coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, the market transaction activity was not high, and the market price remained stable; entering March, due to the release of demand for cultural paper in the traditional peak season, the paper mills actively follow up the implementation of orders, and the market price will rise significantly. However, the weak demand for teaching and training orders makes the support on the demand side slightly weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market price is revealed, entering a stalemate stage; in July, the demand for some supplementary orders and the reprinting of teaching materials was released, which also led to a slight rebound in prices; September is also the beginning of the traditional peak season of cultural paper, supported by the dual benefits of cost and demand, prices once again entered the upward channel.
According to data from Zhuo Chuang Information, from January to September 2022, with the support of high pulp prices and the demand for some publishing orders, the price of coated paper increased in a narrow range in March; however, due to the weakening of orders for publicity, conferences, and teaching aids under the current situation, the recovery of social orders is limited compared with last year, and the coated paper market still maintains a weak demand situation. Therefore, although the cost is high and the industry is also facing greater profit pressure, the market price is easy to fall but hard to rise. After April, the market continues to be weak. At one point it went lower. In September, the market still has traditional peak season expectations and cost support, and some prices have been raised, but social real orders are limited and the increase is narrow.
Since the beginning of the year, the upstream pulp price has continued to fluctuate at a high level, but at the same time, the demand is not good, the upward momentum of cultural paper price is insufficient, the industry profit has once dropped to a low level, the profit margin of the paper mill has tightened, and the production line of the paper mill has been shut down and changed from time to time.
Supported by the continued high cost and the demand for publishing orders, the stalemate between supply and demand has eased, and the inventory in some channels has also returned to normal or even low positions. The price of pulp is running at a high level. With the support of the cost side, the release of publishing orders will help the price go up. It is expected that the price of offset paper will still rise in the fourth quarter of 2022. December is approaching the end of the year, and some companies may withdraw funds. In addition, with the closing of publishing orders , the price may loosen slightly. However, under the pressure of costs, the increase in social order demand for coated paper is slightly limited, the market is relatively stalemate, and the upward range of price gravity in the fourth quarter is narrow.
Post time: Jan-16-2023