Folding Box Board Market Trend

In the third quarter of 2022, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the folding box board market fell and adjusted. The supply is still expected to increase in the fourth quarter, but the demand in the traditional peak season is good, and the paper mills are firm in their attitude of raising prices under the support of costs. It is expected that the market may go up in a narrow range.

 

Judging from the price trend of the ivory board market, the third quarter of 2022 continued the downward trend since June, and the market continued to decline from July to August. Among them, the decline in August increased significantly, and the monthly average price fell by 9.85% month-on-month, which was 7.15 percentage points larger than that in July. Although there was a rebound in September, it was only a small recovery of prices in domestic low-priced areas.

FBB market price trend

 

Judging from the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of the FBB market, the third quarter of 2022 is in the transition period between the off-season and the peak season. It can be seen from the seasonal index in the past ten years that the market decline gradually narrowed from July to August, and turned from decline to rise in September. However, the market decline gradually expanded from July to August this year, especially the average price of the “Golden Nine” market did not rise but fell month-on-month, showing a trend that was contrary to historical laws. Weak market demand is the main factor affecting the lower-than-expected trend of food board. According to data, domestic consumption in the third quarter fell by 0.93% compared with the second quarter, and fell by about 19.83% year-on-year. With the gradual recovery of the supply chain in the Yangtze River Delta region at the end of the second quarter, the overall domestic logistics and transportation situation has improved. However, it is more difficult to return lost orders in the early stage, and the progress of the resumption of work and production in the market is slow.

FBB market seasonal fluctuation characteristics

The pulp market as a whole showed a stalemate at a high level, and the driving force for the trend of the Ningbo board market weakened. The gross profit margin of the white cardboard industry turned from positive to negative in August. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the large decline in paper prices is the main factor for the decline in industry profits. The dominant factor in the trend of the white cardboard market in the third quarter is the change in supply and demand, and the support from the cost side is not strong.

 

In addition, exports, as a supplementary factor for domestic consumption, may have contractionary pressure in the context of weak external demand, which will increase competition in the domestic market. On the whole, the game between supply and demand in the market is still obvious in the fourth quarter, but there are still uncertainties about the specific release of production capacity and the recovery of demand, and the improvement of the demand side is a relatively key influencing factor.


Post time: Jan-23-2023